Indicator 1:	Coastal Empire Coincident Economic Index
	Trend
	vs. Georgia

What does it measure?

Regional economic activity is measured by the Coastal Empire Coincident Economic Index. The index is developed from underlying indicators of current economic activity important in Bryan, Chatham and Effingham Counties. The variables are employment, port activity, electricity sales, retail sales, hotel room rentals, airport boardings and consumer confidence in the South Atlantic states. The data are adjusted for typical seasonal swings and the effect of inflation so that the combined index clearly reflects regional economic activity. The data is summarized and analyzed in a complementary quarterly publication, the Economic Monitor, and is available by email and at the Center for Regional Analysis website.

Why is it important?
The index measures the current economic heartbeat of the region. Overall, a strong economy provides opportunities for income and employment growth and thereby increases the standard of living. The health of the regional economy affects the
well-being of its citizens, businesses and institutions.

How are we doing?
The Coastal Empire coincident economic index (in red below) increased by 0.86% from 149.0 to 150.3 during 2011. The economic recovery from recession began in early 2010 and continues through the fourth quarter of 2011. More recently, growth in consumer spending and tourism are supporting the economy.  Employment is relatively stable, but there have been some modest losses from the third to fourth quarter. As compared to the previous year, the port continues to boost the regional economy with solid gains in cargo handled.  The manufacturing and construction sectors remain steady. 

The leading index (in blue below) is designed to provide a short-term forecast of the region’s economic activity in the upcoming six to nine months. The forecasting index increased in a meaningful way during the fourth quarter of 2011. Modestly improving conditions in the labor and housing markets account for this. Weak growth is expected through the remainder of 2011 with some improvement expected in 2012.

COASTAL EMPIRE ECONOMIC INDEXES Source: AASU Center for Regional Analysis

COASTAL EMPIRE COINCIDENT

Year	Coincident Index	Leading Index
2000	137.4	136.7
2001	133.5	134.3
2002	138.0	134.2
2003	138.0	143.0
2004	146.6	152.3
2005	152.2	156.0
2006	158.7	150.2
2007	163.3	138.3
2008	153.8	113.2
2009	145.7	113.4
2010	149.0	114.8
2011 (YTD)	150.3	121.3